The French magazine Le Figaro published an article by Jean-Marie Guénois, titled: End of a Reign at the Vatican – How the Church Prepares for the Post-Francis Era (Fin de Régne au Vatican – Comment L’Église prépare l’après-François).

Editorial (04/01/2024 11:31, Gaudium Press)  The renown Le Figaro’s Rome Correspondent, Jean-Marie Guénois, published an extensive article in the March 29th edition, titled “End of a Reign at the Vatican – How the Church Prepares for the Post-Francis Era” (Fin de Régne au Vatican – Comment L’Église prépare l’après-François).

The piece explores the health challenges faced by Pope Francis and his weakened health. The Latin American Pontiff, however, maintains his determination to lead the Church’s reform, which, according to Guénois, is stronger than ever.

Describing the physical condition of the 87-year-old Pope, Guénois adopts a somewhat dramatic tone, stating that it is in the Roman Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore – dearly beloved by Francis – that they are digging his grave. He wants to rest for all eternity near this beloved icon [Salus populi romani]. Officially, construction signs announce “restoration” works. Le Figaro, meanwhile, was able to verify that a grave is being prepared.

Indeed, it is no secret that Francis wants to be buried in the Roman Basilica: “I want to be buried in Santa Maria Maggiore,” he declared in an interview on December 13th last year.

Clearly, we must consider the possibility of the Pope’s passing, given that the Pontiff is approaching 90 years of age. As usual, all sorts of speculation have emerged following several “indicators’: lately, the Pope had to delegate the reading of his teachings to a collaborator from the Secretariat of State, or faced physical difficulties, like getting into the popemobile, or remained silent during the Palm Sunday homily.

Although Francis has repeated several times that he considers the Petrine Ministry lifelong and that “one does not govern with the knees, but with the head,” everyone is aware of the “resignation letter,” handed to Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone at the beginning of his pontificate, which “could facilitate his resignation in case of serious health issues,” reminds Le Figaro correspondent.

Church and Media

Guénois, after analyzing the increasing possibilities of the end of the pontificate, goes on to make a sort of balance, emphasizing that currently “Francis’ image is always praised in the media and in world opinion,” while in the Church, “the climate has deteriorated.”

“In the Vatican, the atmosphere is tenser than ever; in the parishes, confusion reigns,” a situation that intensified, according to “numerous officials, witnesses, and experts, [with] the death of Pope Benedict XVI on December 31, 2022”; this death had “produced a mysterious effect,” “impossible to measure.”

A Decision that Marked the Post-Benedict XVI Era

After the death of the German pope, Francis took “important decisions,” “at an accelerated pace,” of which “the most significant was, on July 1, 2023, the appointment of Archbishop Victor Manuel Fernandez – Argentine, personal friend of Francis – to the head of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith; an appointment that positioned him as “number two of the pontificate.” To contextualize, we must remember that John Paul II had chosen Joseph Ratzinger to occupy this key function,” observes Guénois.

While “many saw this appointment as the coherent choice of a theologian considered the ‘inspirer of Francis’, others perceived it as a ‘provocation’ aimed at conservatives,” evidencing a change in “direction with no return.”

Another of the post-Benedict decisions highlighted by Le Figaro’s article is, naturally, the declaration Fiducia Supplicans from December 18th 2023, signed Cardinal Fernandez, authorizing, “under certain conditions, the blessing, by the priest, of homosexual couples.” For the French Magazine, it resulted in “more than half of the world’s episcopates, including those from sub-Saharan Africa, publicly rejecting the blessing of ‘homosexual couples’, outright opposing the Roman directive.”

“According to a cardinal living in Rome, Fiducia Supplicans was like ‘the straw that broke the camel’s back’, causing this unprecedented fragmentation and polarization within the Church, and discouraging, even within the Roman Curia, whole sectors of prelates, particularly bishops, who until then were quite loyal to Francis,” points out Guénois.

Despite the “pope being spared public criticism, Cardinal Fernández ended up losing his credibility and authority”. His image was also severely damaged by the emergence of an old work of his, La Pasión Mística: Espiritualidad y sensualidad, with very explicit sexual content, which had been “hidden to the point of being removed from the official bibliography of this theologian promoted to the highest theological position in the Church”. “The pope, a personal friend of Fernandez, could not have been unaware of the existence of this book and its concealment,” an “insider of the dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith,” has allegedly assured to Guénois. 

According to Le Figaro, another recent decision that caused a great stir in the Holy See, was the condemnation to more than five and a half years in prison of Cardinal Angelo Becciu, former substitute of the Secretariat of State, a sentence that “was received as a blow in the Vatican. Many thought [that Cardinal Becciu] would be the target of a symbolic sentence, but the trial revealed that the main accusation against him, a disastrous real estate investment in London, had been equally approved by his superiors, including (…) Francis himself”.

“The severity of a court whose supreme magistrate is the Pope – as head of state of Vatican City – had the impact of an electric shock on an ecclesiastical community unaccustomed to legal sanctions”, ponder Guénois’ sources. This is a degree of severity quite different from the one applied in the “affaire Marko Rupnik. A world-renowned Jesuit mosaic artist, in December 2022 Rupnik was accused of dozens of sexual abuses.” Yet, ” escaped excommunication, protected by the Pope”.

Alluding to post-Benedict events, Jean-Marie Guénois points also at the synodal sessions of October 2023, “in which the Catholic Church gives the impression of questioning its foundations”, reforms that “fell very badly in certain clerical circles”.

Demos II

“These events and their precipitation fed a kind of ‘general malaise’, reveals a cardinal, a ‘toxic atmosphere’, clearly perceptible in Rome. For the Cardinal, ‘since the death of Benedict XVI, the train has derailed’”. The opinion is also shared by several Vatican residents, including high-ranking officials, such as the author of Demos II, a document circulating in the Roman Curia at the end of last February, “in fact written by a cardinal (as we were able to verify)”.

Demos II, for which the author voices “colleagues, circulated as a balance of the pontificate, denounces a Church ‘more divided than ever in its recent history’. He criticizes the ‘autocratic’ governance of the Pope (the College of Cardinals, for instance, has gathered only twice, in 2014 and 2022) – could favour “manipulations” in the next conclave, while showing a Pope “intolerant to any disagreement, even if respectful”. Demos II worries about “the ambiguity in matters of faith and morals that sows confusion among the faithful”, where the magisterium has become a “system of flexible ethics or sociological analysis” heavily influenced, according to the document, by a “Jesuit” vision. The inflexible tone of the document is one of the visible preludes to the broader debate on succession. Canon law formally prohibits any prior agreement among cardinals. However, nothing prevents prelates from meeting privately – which has happened, there have been meetings in the past – “something that Le Figaro Magazine was able to verify”, says Guénois.

Unlike the previous conclave, Guénois points out,  “this time, according to unanimous opinion, the primary question is not ‘who’ could succeed a personality as strong as Francis, but ‘how to restore the unity of a Church that is now deeply divided’”.

This is heard everywhere. There is concern about the future pontificate: “Which direction should the Church take? Should it backtrack?” or “continue with the reform?” wonders a high-ranking Vatican official.  In this context, a pressing question arises in media circles: the “identity of the Catholic faith”. Another anonymous cardinal, quite concerned, asks even a darker question: “Does the Church still believe in anything?

Papabili?

From these topics, Le Figaro moves on to the ‘papabili’, stating from the beginning that, presently, no candidate stands out.

He briefly mentions cardinals such as the Secretary of State, Parolin; the president of the Italian episcopate, Zuppi; the Holy Land Cardinal, Pizzaballa; Hungarian cardinal Erdö; the Spaniard Omella; the Filipino Tagle; the prefect of Culture, Tolentino de Mendonça, as well as the Easterner Ranjith or Maung Bo, not discarding the Archbishop of Marseille, Aveline, among others.

Regarding the possibility of an African Pope, “the various sources consulted on the subject in Rome judge that ‘the time has not yet come’, but all agree on the fact that the Africans will be in the position of ‘arbiters’ in the next conclave”, with their 17 elector cardinals. However, when delving into this futuristic analysis, immediately these two statements emerge: “Anyone, except a Latin [American]; anyone, except a Jesuit’”, reports Guénois.

“Polarized Europe will, however, play a decisive role with 52 electors”, emphasizes the columnist.

Guénois concludes his extensive article, recounting the comment of “an experienced cardinal”: “The Church, the faithful, the priests, the religious, and the bishops need to be united, not divided. They wish for attention, calm, wisdom, and no rush”.

Compiled by Gustavo Kralj